Brazil has just re-elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a fourth presidential term. The election result grants the president-elect full legitimacy to govern and must be respected by all political actors.
At the same time, the narrow outcome of this election cannot be interpreted as an unrestricted endorsement of his government’s performance or as a blank cheque for the continuation of practices that have contributed to worsening the country’s institutional problems. The vote reveals a divided Brazil and a society that expects concrete responses to challenges that remain unresolved.
Lula possesses significant democratic credentials and a record of respect for the constitutional order and the electoral process. However, an important share of the institutional problems that today weaken Brazilian democracy is also associated with choices, omissions, and priorities observed during his administrations. Among them is the progressive relegation of anti-corruption efforts to a secondary position in government discourse and policymaking, the insufficient response to institutional setbacks accumulated over recent years, and the absence of stronger initiatives to reinforce the independence and credibility of key institutions of the Republic. This includes the decision to abandon the practice of appointing the Prosecutor General from the shortlist submitted by the National Association of Federal Prosecutors (ANPR), as well as appointments to the Supreme Court (STF) marked by the predominance of personal trust and political loyalty as selection criteria. Equally concerning has been the silence surrounding serious episodes involving abuses of power, conflicts of interest, corruption, and impunity involving STF justices, factors that have significantly contributed to the erosion of public confidence in democratic institutions.
Added to this is the persistence of practices that undermine the fairness of electoral competition, including the extensive use of the state apparatus and the expansion of government spending during election periods to influence political contests. This distortion has been observed under successive administrations and demands more effective institutional responses to safeguard the integrity of the democratic process.
An institutional reform agenda to rebuild the State
Brazil needs a broad agenda of institutional strengthening that encompasses all three branches of government.
Within the justice system, a comprehensive effort is required to restore legitimacy and public trust. In recent years, repeated episodes involving lack of transparency, conflicts of interest, abuses of power, and serious allegations of corruption have affected institutions that should serve as benchmarks of integrity and impartiality. The erosion of these institutions’ credibility has profound consequences for public perceptions of justice, equality before the law, and the functioning of the democratic rule of law.
In this context, the upcoming appointments to the Supreme Court will be of decisive importance. In addition to advancing the long-overdue expansion of diversity, the president should prioritize candidates with impeccable reputations, proven independence, technical excellence, and an unequivocal commitment to the public interest. Likewise, it is essential to restore and improve the practice of appointing the Prosecutor General from the shortlist prepared by the National Association of Federal Prosecutors, a mechanism that, despite being open to improvement, produced superior results in terms of institutional independence, technical quality, and the legitimacy of the leadership of the Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office.
Another challenge for the new term will be addressing the profound institutional distortion created by the expansion of the so-called “secret budget” and its successor mechanisms. By transferring increasing portions of authority over public spending to Congress, this model has deepened clientelistic practices, dramatically expanded opportunities for corruption, and undermined the State’s ability to formulate and implement public policies based on technical criteria, evidence, and long-term national interests. It has also distorted electoral competition by enabling the large-scale use of public resources to perpetuate the political power of incumbent groups.
The re-elected president should lead an effort to rebalance this relationship between the branches of government and ensure that public resources are once again directed, above all, toward the policies that matter most to Brazilians.
Brazilian democracy requires not only strong institutions, but trustworthy institutions.
Fighting corruption must return to the center of the national agenda
Prioritizing the fight against corruption requires rebuilding the State’s capacity for prevention, detection, and accountability. This includes restoring the autonomy, technical expertise, budgetary resources, and operational capacity of oversight and anti-corruption bodies, as well as strengthening the independence and regulatory quality of strategic institutions such as the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (CVM) and the country’s regulatory agencies.
The lessons emerging from the large-scale banking corruption scheme involving Banco Master and other recent financial scandals linked to violent organized crime demonstrate the need for significant improvements in mechanisms for supervising the financial system and preventing conflicts of interest and regulatory capture. At the same time, the government should prioritize a strategy based on the principle of follow the money, expanding investments in financial intelligence and strengthening coordination among COAF (Brazil’s FIU), the Federal Revenue Service, law enforcement agencies, and public prosecutors.
Recent experiences, such as Operation Hidden Carbon, have demonstrated that targeting illicit financial flows is one of the most effective ways to simultaneously combat corruption, money laundering, and the economic structures that sustain organized crime. This agenda is uniquely positioned to address two of Brazilian society’s greatest concerns at the same time: corruption and public security.
Breaking the stagnation in the fight against corruption
President Lula has frequently stated his desire to leave behind a legacy of a fairer, more developed, and more internationally respected country. For that ambition to become reality, it will be necessary to confront a problem that has for years eroded confidence in Brazilian democracy: the persistent inability to make consistent progress in preventing and combating corruption.
For more than a decade, Brazil has remained stagnant in concerning positions on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, ranking 107th among 182 countries assessed and remaining below both the global and regional averages. A fourth presidential term offers an opportunity to change this trajectory.
Transparency International – Brazil expects the new government to adopt concrete measures to place the fight against corruption and the strengthening of democratic institutions back at the center of the national agenda. Among them are 15 priority proposals presented by the organization before the second round of the election:
- Defend and strengthen the democratic rule of law and ensure the conduct of free and fair elections in 2028 and 2030;
- Protect civic space, fully guarantee investigative journalism, and promote citizen participation and social oversight in combating corruption;
- Develop and implement a National Anti-Corruption Policy;
- Guarantee and expand public transparency, ensuring full compliance with the Access to Information Law;
- Strengthen the budget, staffing, and safeguards against interference in anti-corruption oversight institutions;
- In cooperation with Congress, ensure full budget transparency and substantially and progressively reduce resources allocated through parliamentary earmarks;
- Defend, expand, and modernize Brazil’s anti-money laundering system and prioritize the use of financial intelligence against corruption and organized crime;
- Promote a broad, technical, and plural debate on justice system reform, focused on integrity, transparency, efficiency, equity, and independence;
- Prioritize addressing inequalities in the criminal justice system by simultaneously tackling systemic impunity for white-collar crime and the mass incarceration associated with ordinary crime;
- Restore the practice of appointing the Prosecutor General from the shortlist prepared by the National Association of Federal Prosecutors and propose constitutionalizing this model;
- Propose reforms to the appointment process for justices of the Federal Supreme Court and other superior courts in order to improve the integrity, independence, quality, and diversity of appointments, as well as the transparency and legitimacy of the process;
- Improve selection mechanisms for the leadership of regulatory agencies, the CVM, and CADE, while protecting them against conflicts of interest;
- Support the approval of comprehensive legislation regulating lobbying before all three branches of government;
- Advance the implementation of Tax Reform with an emphasis on creating a comprehensive system of tax justice, transparency, and integrity;
- Intensify and improve efforts to combat environmental crimes and the corruption and money laundering practices associated with them.
